If you've been following my forecast all week, you know that I've been updating you about a strong storm that could affect Christmas travel as we approach the holiday.
Today's computer models actually look somewhat similar to yesterday's, which does add confidence. However, the big meteorological caveat is that the upper level disturbance that will eventually create this storm is still over the Gulf of Alaska. Why is that a problem? Because there isn't much meteorological data over the oceans.
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We don't get a better handle on a potential storm's upper level physics until the disturbance moves over our continent, where weather balloons give us specific data about the atmospheric conditions aloft. That will happen over the weekend, so I'm hoping to start getting more specific starting on Sunday.
I know that many of you will either be traveling for Christmas, or are expecting people who are traveling here from somewhere else, so I'll do everything I can to provide the information you need to help you plan.
Don't forget to follow me on Twitter at @PaulGrossLocal4…I'll start tweeting updates next week as I get new information and have a better handle on things.
Here's your forecast, beginning with tonight…
Look for skies to average partly cloudy overnight, with lows in the low 20s. Light and variable wind.
Increasing clouds on Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 30s and a light and variable wind. Mostly cloudy Saturday night, with lows in the mid 20s.
Mostly cloudy on Sunday, with highs in the mid 30s. Mostly cloudy Sunday night, with lows in the upper 20s.
Mostly cloudy on Monday, with highs near 40. Rain showers develop Monday night, with lows in the mid 30s.
Rain shower chances continue through the day on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 40s. We'll see more rain showers Tuesday night, with lows in the mid 30s.
Wednesday has been the tricky part of this forecast for several days, and it's so difficult because it's on this day that a storm system approaching from the northwest and another storm system to our southeast will merge into one big storm that will settle just north or northeast of Michigan for Christmas. It's the details of this phasing that are critical to the temperature profile…and that dictates when we change over from rain to snow.
Right now, I can't say with any confidence when this will occur, but at some point Wednesday rain will change to snow. By Christmas Eve, it'll probably be snowing.
Yes, we want a White Christmas, but it would have been nicer to get that snow a week ago and have it already on the ground so it doesn't impact the holiday travel. Temperatures on Christmas Eve day likely will hold nearly steady in the mid to upper 30s. Wind will increase Wednesday night, with snow showers likely. Lows in the upper 20s.
Christmas Day will be very windy with snow showers, but it's still not clear if it'll just be a "regular" windy day, or high wind that would cause power outages. Stay tuned on this. But one thing I can say with higher confidence is that the strong west winds will crank up the lake effect machine, and we'll probably see some pretty intense snow bands setting up near the eastern shores of all five Great Lakes…keep this in mind if you'll be traveling in those areas. Highs in the low to mid 30s. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday night, with lows in the upper 20s.
Increasing clouds on Friday as Kwanza begins, with a chance for rain (you read that right) by the end of the day. Highs in the upper 30s.