Loss to Michigan State changes direction of Michigan's season

Wolverines suffered second loss of 2015

Michigan State vs. Michigan football at Michigan Stadium in 2017. (WDIV) (Derick Hutchinson/ClickOnDetroit.com)

ANN ARBOR, Mich. – When Michigan's dependable special teams unit took the field for one final punt against Michigan State Saturday night, the Wolverines' season started down the track toward something special. 

Michigan stood 10 seconds away from a 6-1 start, a long-awaited win over its in-state rival, a top-10 ranking and a chance to compete for multiple championships. Only one game, a late-November matchup with Ohio State, stood between the Wolverines and a Big Ten East Division title. 

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Had they gone on to win that game, the Wolverines could have played in their first Big Ten Championship Game. It likely would've been a play-in for the College Football Playoff.

But the ball never found Blake O'Neill's foot. In fact, it hardly even touched his hands. The senior transfer, who's been one of the best punters in the entire country this season, dropped the snap. The ball was batted perfectly to MSU's Jalen Watts-Jackson, who waltzed into the end zone to steal a victory and a potential Cinderella season from Michigan.

Read: Michigan falls to No. 15 in the AP Poll

But even as Michigan's slim national championship hopes evaporate, the team turns to five remaining regular season games, that could still make for a solid season.

So what's next?

Michigan's only bye week leaves 14 full days for Saturday's wounds to fester as the team prepares for its third road game of the season. That game, against Minnesota, gives Jim Harbaugh a chance to win his first rivalry trophy and return the Little Brown Jug to Ann Arbor.

In the following two weeks, Michigan hosts Rutgers and plays at Indiana.

The upcoming three-game stretch is the easiest on the Wolverines' entire schedule. Minnesota lost to Northwestern and Nebraska by a combined 50 points and picked up its only Big Ten win against punch-less Purdue. Rutgers' best win is over Indiana and Indiana, well, lost to Rutgers.

Michigan should win each of its next three games, especially with two weeks to prepare for Minnesota.

Barring an upset, an 8-2 Michigan squad would travel to Happy Valley to take on a Penn State team that will probably be 7-0 at home. The Nittany Lions played weak opponents at home for five straight weeks before Saturday night's loss to Ohio State and look to be well below Michigan's overall talent level.

But Beaver Stadium is always a tremendously difficult place to play, and Penn State might be gunning for a perfect 8-0 season at home.

If it survives that stretch and beats No. 1 Ohio State at home on Nov. 28, Michigan will have a chance to share the Big Ten East Division title. Ohio State would have to beat Michigan State in Columbus on Nov. 21 to create a three-way tie. But it's extremely unlikely that even a 10-2 Michigan team will play for the Big Ten Championship.

A three-way tie between Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan would give way to the conference tiebreaking procedures. Here's a look at those tiebreakers:

  • The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
  • The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
  • The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, and 6).
  • The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
  • The highest ranked team in the first College Football Playoff poll following the completion of Big Ten regular season conference play shall be the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game, unless the two highest ranked tied teams are ranked within one spot of each other in the College Football Playoff poll. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the Big Ten Championship Game.
  • The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
  • The representative will be chosen by random draw.
  • Assuming all three teams finish 7-1 in the conference with losses to each other, each of the first four tiebreaker totals would be exactly the same for each team. The East crown would then go to whichever team ranks highest in the College Football Playoff poll.

    It's here, at the fifth tiebreaking procedure, that Michigan's road to Indianapolis would end. No matter how impressive the Wolverines look against Minnesota, Rutgers, Indiana and Penn State, a two-loss Michigan team would have no chance of jumping both one-loss Michigan State and one-loss Ohio State in the rankings.

    So Michigan's only hope of playing in the Big Ten title game rests on wining its remaining five games and Michigan State losing at least twice. But the Spartan team that showed up at the Big House this weekend isn't likely to lose to Indiana, Nebraska, Maryland, or Penn State.

    Michigan had its sights set on a championship with 10 seconds left in Saturday's game, but the Wolverines can still enjoy a solid season if they win nine games, or an excellent season if they knock off Penn State and Ohio State to finish 10-2.

    A fumbled snap probably put an end to Michigan's championship aspirations, but a team that finished 5-7 a year ago could still make a statement down the stretch.

    Saturday proved that losses (especially losses like that) sting much more for a team with high goals. But at least under Harbaugh, Michigan has something to lose.