DETROIT – Detroit enjoyed a convincing 34-17 win over the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving Day, as the Lions improved to 8-4 and planted themselves squarely into the playoff picture.
The second-place Lions broke a two-game losing streak after struggling in road games against the two best teams in the NFL: Arizona and New England. Though the Bears rode a two-game winning streak into the matchup, the Lions beat down their division rival with a rare offensive outburst led by Matt Stafford's 390 passing yards.
Now, as the schedule turns to the final quarter of the season for the Lions, the NFC has separated itself into two clear groups: Teams in contention for a playoff spot and teams that, realistically, are not.
A quick glance at the NFC standings will show you that six teams have already won at least eight games: Arizona, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Seattle, Detroit and Dallas. As a result, any team with less than six wins would have to make up three games in the final month of the season to have a chance at the playoffs.
In other words, it's not happening.
With these numbers in mind, Tampa Bay, Washington, New York (Giants), St. Louis, Minnesota and Chicago can be considered out of the playoff race. That leaves 10 teams vying for six valuable spots in the NFC.
But that group of teams can be further split into two groups: One made up of the teams with winning records, and the other made up of NFC South teams.
Though it certainly doesn't deserve one, the NFC South, by rule, will send a team to the playoffs regardless of record. The Falcons (4-7), Saints (4-7) and Panthers (3-8-1) are battling for the division championship and the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoffs. To give this race some context, the division-leading Falcons are currently in line to make the playoffs despite an 0-7 record against teams outside their awful division. Their .261 strength of victory is by far the worst in the NFL.
As a result, those three teams will battle for one playoff spot in the final quarter of the season, leaving five spots for the seven winning teams (the aforementioned teams with at least eight wins and the 7-5 49ers) to fight over. Two of those teams will watch the postseason from home in January, but the Lions are in a great position to avoid that familiar fate.
Here are the four most likely landing spots for the Lions if they qualify for the playoffs.
Most likely: No. 6 Detroit Lions vs. No. 3 Green Bay Packers
What a treat for the Lions! In this scenario, Detroit earns the unenviable task of finishing the season with a Week 17 matchup in Green Bay, only to head right back to a freezing Lambeau Field seven days later for a rematch against the division rival Packers.
Detroit pounded Green Bay in Week 3 by holding the Aaron Rodgers-led offense to a season-low seven points. But the Lions haven't won in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991, so it'd be in their best interest to avoid this matchup at all costs.
How this happens: This scenario plays out if the Lions finish the season 3-1 with a loss in Green Bay and the Packers finish 4-1 with a loss to New England Sunday. The Eagles and Cardinals would have to earn the top two seeds in the NFC to push the Packers to No. 3 and set up this divisional matchup in the wild-card round.
How it could change: The Lions could avoid this matchup by pulling off an unthinkable upset in Week 17 and flipping the script: Forcing the Packers to travel to Detroit for the wild-card round. Detroit has won the last two meetings in Ford Field by a combined score of 59-17, so moving this game to the Motor City would greatly improve the chances for Detroit to advance.
Second possibility: No. 6 Detroit Lions vs. No. 3 Arizona Cardinals
Does it sound crazy to say the Packers could win out? Considering their recent hot streak and overall dominance at home, it could happen. If so, the Lions could find themselves back in the desert for a rematch with the NFC West champion Cardinals.
Obviously, defense was the story when these teams met two weeks ago. Detroit held the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals to just 14 points (all in the first quarter) but mustered just six points themselves. If the Lions turn their offense around, a rematch could be an advantage for Detroit.
Arizona has a tough stretch to end the season, with Kansas City, Seattle and San Francisco all on the schedule in the final quarter. If the Cards drop two of those games, they'll fall to the No. 3 spot and host the Lions in the first round.
How this happens: This potential matchup relies heavily on this weekend's powerhouse battle between the Patriots and Packers. Green Bay could earn the No. 1 overall seed by winning out, and New England is the greatest remaining road block. If the Packers win out and the Cardinals lose two of their final five games, the Lions could finish either 3-1 or 2-2 and find themselves on a plane to Arizona for the first round.
How it could change: A Green Bay loss would propel the Cardinals to a first-round bye, as would a 4-1 or 5-0 finish from Arizona. As noted above, the Lions could really shake things up with a win in Lambeau, but so far all signs point toward a first-round road game for Detroit.
Third possibility: No. 5 Detroit Lions vs. No. 4 New Orleans Saints
Oh, the memories. This scenario would birth a rematch from the Lions' last playoff appearance in 2011, when New Orleans eliminated Detroit 45-28 without punting in the game.
The Lions pulled off a miracle victory against the Saints at home in Week 7, but a rematch in the Superdome would offer a much better representation of the two teams. Calvin Johnson didn't play against the Saints this season, and the injured Jimmy Graham didn't have a single catch in the game. With those two weapons back on the field, this wild-card matchup would be more of an offensive battle than the 24-23 final in Ford Field.
How this happens: In this instance, the Lions and Packers both finish the season 3-1 and Green Bay takes the NFC North title. But two road losses in the final four games for the Seattle Seahawks leaves the defending Super Bowl champs on the outside and pushes Detroit up to the No. 5 seed.
How it could change: If the Lions lose two of their final four games, the best they can do is earn the No. 6 seed. If the Seahawks finish with the same record as the Lions, Seattle owns the tiebreaker and would supplant them as the No. 5 seed.
Fourth possibility: No. 6 Detroit Lions vs. No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles were immensely impressive on Thursday, walking into Dallas and waxing the Cowboys 33-10. Now the Eagles are set up to receive one of the two NFC byes, but could miss out with a loss to Seattle or Dallas at home.
Detroit last played in Philadelphia in 2013, a second half collapse that started the team's four-game losing streak to end the season. Though the Lions jumped out to an early 14-0 lead in the blizzard and led 20-14 in the fourth quarter, the Eagles scored three touchdowns in the final 13:13 to blow the game open.
If the Eagles get quarterback Nick Foles back from injury, they'll be one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the postseason. Another trend to consider: Philly is undefeated at home this season, but lost a home playoff game to the Saints in 2013.
How this happens: Arizona and Green Bay score the two NFC byes and push the 12-4 Eagles to No. 3. The Lions lose the tiebreaker to the Seahawks, who earn the No. 5 seed and the Eagles beat the Cowboys at home to guarantee an NFC East title.
How this could change: If the Cowboys avenge Thursday's loss to the Eagles in Week 15, Dallas regains control of the East Division. If the Eagles win their final four games, they'll finish in the top two of the NFC and push the Packers back down to No. 3.
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