Michigan is proving once gain to be a battle ground state. In the most recent poll, Romney and Obama are tied at 47% with 3% voting for someone else and 3% undecided.
Just ten days ago, Obama led Romney by 5% (49%-44%). The race was tied in Mitchell Polls conducted in June (June 18, 2012) when Obama led 47%-46% and one month ago (July 24, 2012) when Romney led 45%-44%.
The automated telephone survey of 1277 likely voters in the November General Election was conducted Thursday, August 23, 2012 and has a Margin of Error + or – 2.74% at the 95% level of confidence. The survey was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. for the media and was not paid for by any campaigns or committees.
“Romney has solidified his lead with Republicans and has moved back into a tie with Obama as a result of a big shift in men voters towards his candidacy. He has also gained ground with independent voters. Only ten days ago, he trailed with ticket splitters by 6% (46%-40%). Now, Romney leads with independents by 8%. There is also reason to believe that the addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket helps Romney. When the vice presidential candidates are added to a trial ballot question, Romney/Ryan leads Obama/Biden by 1% (46%-45%). When asked if Congressman Ryan’s vice presidential candidacy makes them more or less likely to vote for Romney, 53% say it makes them more likely and 47% less likely,” Steve Mitchell, Chairman of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said.
The gender gap continues to be significant. Obama’s 13% lead with women remains identical to what it was 10 day ago (54%-41%). The big change is with men where Romney has increased his 3% lead (48%-45%) ten days ago to 14% (53%-39%) now.
Obama’s lead among Democrats eroded from 92%-6% 10 days ago to 88%-9% in the most recent survey. This is more consistent with his July percentages (87%-10%). Romney has really picked up with Republicans where he is now leading 93%-4%, probably as a result of adding the conservative Ryan to the ticket. Ten days ago he was weaker (87%-8%) with his base vote. In July, he led 91%-2% and in June 86%-6%.
The biggest change is with independents. In this poll, Romney has retaken the lead with the pivotal independent voters (46%-38%). He led by 10% with ticket splitters in July (44%-34%), but trailed with them by 6% (46%-40%) ten days ago. In June, Romney led (43%-38%). The percentage of voters that identify themselves as Independents is down to 13% from 16% in the last two surveys.
Obama’s lead in Detroit remains very strong (94%-6%). Obama’s 5% lead ten days ago in the Tri-County Area outside Detroit (50%)-45%) has been cut to 1% in the most recent poll. Romney led by 8% (48%-40%) in late July. That area includes Wayne County outside of the City of Detroit, Oakland and Macomb Counties. In the rest of the state outside the Tri-County area, Romney now leads by 8%% (51%-43%). That is a 5% improvement from ten days ago when he led by just 3% (48%-45%). In June, he led by 3% and one month ago Romney by 6% (47%-41%).
Obama leads by a large margin with younger voters. Among 18-29 year olds the lead is 59%-35%, down slightly from his lead with these voters August 13th (62%-31%). There was a big change with voters 30-39 years old. Ten days ago Obama led by 13% (51%-38%), now Romney leads 48%-41%. There was also a big shift with voters older than 60. Obama led with this group ten days ago by 11% (53%-42%), now Romney leads narrowly (49%-48%). In the last poll, Romney led with middle aged voters. He led by 10% with 40-49 years olds (53%-43%). He has stretched that lead out to 19% (56%-37%). He led with 50-59 year olds by 18% last time (55%-37%). Now, however, Obama leads with these voters (49%-42%).
By race, Obama led 92%-5% with African-Americans in our last poll. Now, the lead is 73%-26%. Romney’s lead with white voters was 7% (50%-43%) ten days ago, now it is just 3% (48%-45%). Among all other races, Obama led 48%-42% last time. In this poll, Romney leads 55%-37%.
“The main argument that Obama supporters will make against the accuracy of this poll is that Obama is only getting 73% of the vote from African-Americans. That fact, however, does not make this poll inaccurate. I agree that eventually, at least 90% of African-Americans will vote for Obama. Obama’s problem now is that he is running behind the party vote among blacks. More than eight-in-ten blacks (84%) self-identify as Democrats. However, just 73% say they are voting for Obama. He is running 11% behind his base party vote. That is not good news. We have surveyed African-Americans that are Democrats. They’re just not voting for Obama in the same manner yet that they did four years ago,” Mitchell said.
“This is a race for the independents. Ten days ago Obama had their support, now Romney does. The big change in this poll is the large shift in men voters to Romney that off-sets his losing margin with women. The gender gap has become a two-way street. Obama leads by almost the exact same margin with women that Romney leads with men. As the conventions begin tomorrow, voters will have a chance to see the plans and visions both parties have for the future. By mid-September, we will have a much better sense of where this very close race is heading. One final bit of information: Obama’s job approval has dropped below 50% to 49%. Job approval tracks almost identically to what an incumbent will get on Election Day. This is a very close race,” Mitchell concluded.
Information provided by Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc.