EXCLUSIVE SURVEY: Looking ahead to November election

Published On: Aug 30 2012 04:52:34 PM EDT
Updated On: Aug 24 2012 11:08:43 AM EDT
DETROIT -

Michigan's General Election is scheduled for Nov. 6.

Ahead of election day The Glengariff Group, Inc. conducted a 600-sample survey of likely 2012 Michigan General Election voters.  The live operator telephone survey was conducted from August 18-20, 2012.  80% of the survey respondents were contact via land-line.  20% of survey respondents were contacted via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.0% with a 95% level of confidence.  This survey was commissioned by WDIV Local 4, the Detroit News.

Are you voting?

Thinking about the upcoming November election, would you say are definitely voting, probably voting, probably not voting, definitely not voting, or would you say you have already voted absentee?

Governor Snyder's performance

By a margin of 48.3%-39.3%, voters approve of the job Rick Snyder is doing as Governor of Michigan. 

  • Governor Snyder has 72.6% approval among strong Republicans, 71.4% support among leaning Republicans and 54.0% support among Independent voters.
  • But Governor Snyder also has 34.2% support among leaning Democratic voters and 24.3% support among strong Democrats. 
  • Governor Snyder has job approval among voters over 65 years old of 49.0%-39.0%.

Favorable         Unfavorable      No Opinion      Never Heard

UP/North         38.5%              30.8%              30.8%              0.0%   

West                38.8%              31.3%              29.9%              0.0%

Southwest        48.0%              42.0%              10.0%              0.0%   

Mid                  44.2%              32.7%              19.2%              1.9%

E Central          29.8%              42.6%              27.7%              0.0%

Oakland           51.9%              30.4%              16.5%              1.3%

Macomb          48.0%              28.0%              24.0%              0.0%

Emergency Manager Law

Voters were asked if they would vote yes to uphold Michigan’s Emergency Manager Law or no to overturn Michigan’s

Emergency Manager Law, by a margin of 53.0%-33.0% voters would vote to uphold Michigan’s Emergency Manager Law.  13.7% of voters are undecided

  • The Emergency Manager Law has 69.3% support in Oakland County, 64.0% support in Macomb County, and 50.0% support in Wayne County.  In the City of Detroit, the Emergency Manager Law would be overturned by a margin of 30.0%-52.5%.  17.5% of Detroit voters are undecided. 
  • The Emergency Manager Law receives strong support from strong Republicans (63.4%), leaning Republicans (62.5%), and Independents (57.4%).  Leaning Democratic voters would overturn the law by a margin of 39.0%-51.2% and strong Democratic voters would overturn the law by a narrow margin of 42.8%-44.9%.

Ballot Proposals:  Bridge proposal weakest/ tax limitation proposal strongest

Five different ballot proposals were presented in the survey.  It is important to note that not all of the proposals have been approved for the November ballot.  Additionally, specific ballot language has not yet been approved.  Ballot language for purposes of this survey were taken from each proposal’s petition

Proposal requiring two-thirds legislative support of the Legislature

Another proposal would change Michigan’s Constitution so that no new or additional taxes can be imposed by the state government unless it receives the support of two thirds of the members of each branch of the legislature or is passed by a statewide vote of Michigan voters during a November election.  If the election were held today, would you vote yes to support this constitutional amendment or no to oppose this constitutional amendment?

  • The proposal requiring two-thirds legislative support of the Legislature and voter approval for any tax increase starts with particularly strong support at 68.0%.

International Bridge and Tunnel Proposal  

One proposal would change Michigan’s Constitution to require voters to decide on whether state government can construct or finance any new international bridges or tunnels for motor vehicles.  If the election were held today, would you vote yes to support this constitutional amendment or no to oppose this constitutional amendment?

  • 42.5% Support
  • 45.0%  Oppose           
  • 12.3%  Undecided       

2/3 Tax Limitation Proposal

Another proposal would change Michigan’s Constitution so that no new or additional taxes can be imposed by the state government unless it receives the support of two thirds of the members of each branch of the legislature or is passed by a statewide vote of Michigan voters during a November election. If the election were held today, would you vote yes to support this constitutional amendment or no to oppose this constitutional amendment?

68.0% Support

24.5% Oppose            

7.2% Undecided

25/25 Energy Proposal

Another proposal would change Michigan’s Constitution to require utilities to obtain at least 25 percent of their electricity from clean renewable energy sources by 2025, and limit how much utilities can charge consumers for the creation of this renewable energy.  If the election were held today, would you vote yes to support this constitutional amendment or no to oppose this constitutional amendment? 

  • 56.9% Support
  • 31.8% Oppose            
  • 11.0% Undecided

Collective Bargaining Proposal

Another proposal would change Michigan’s Constitution to establish a new constitutional right of employees to organize and bargain collectively with employers.  If the election were held today, would you vote yes to support this constitutional amendment or no to oppose this constitutional amendment? 

  • 55.2% Support
  • 36.2% Oppose            
  • 8.3% Undecided         

Home Health Care Proposal    

Another proposal would change Michigan’s Constitution to ensure that state home care programs give participating seniors and persons with disabilities the option of hiring their own individual home care providers, help ensure the availability of quality providers by establishing a Michigan Quality Home Care Council.  A majority of the Council would be participants or their advocates, it would create a registry to link participants with providers, require background checks of providers listed on the registry, provide training opportunities, and provide limited collective bargaining rights.  If the election were held today, would you vote yes to support this constitutional amendment or no to oppose this constitutional amendment? 

  • 62.3% Support
  • 19.3% Oppose            
  • 17.5% Undecided

How is Michigan doing?

Would you say things in the state are on the right track or would you say things have gotten off on the wrong track?

                        Right                Wrong

  • UP/North         38.5%              44.9%
  • West                46.3%              41.8%
  • Southwest        52.0%              36.0%
  • Mid                  48.1%              44.2%
  • E Central          29.8%              53.2% 
  • Oakland           49.4%              39.2% 

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